Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex-ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payo¤s are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of …nes or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises.bank runs, contagion, moral hazard, liquidity, random, contracts, monitoring.

FUNCTIONAL SUNSPOT EQUILIBRIA

Consider a one step forward looking model where agents believe that the equilibrium values of the state variable are determined by a function whose domain is the current value of the state variable and whose range is the value for the subsequent period. An agent's forecast for the subsequent period uses the belief, where the function that is chosen is allowed to depend on the current realization of an extrinsic random process, and is made with knowledge of the past values of the state variable but not the current value. The paper provides (and characterizes) the conditions for the existence of sunspot equilibria for the model described.extrinsic uncertainty, stochastic equilibria

Moral hazard, bank runs and contagion

We study banking with ex ante moral hazard. Resolving the misalignment of the incentives between banks and depositors requires early liquidation with positive probability : efficient risk-sharing between depositors is no longer implementable. In a closed region with a single bank, we show that (i) with costless and perfect monitoring, contracts with bank runs of the equilibrium path of play improve on contracts with transfers, (ii) when the bank’s actions are non-contractible, equilibrium bank runs driven by incentives are linked to liquidity provision by banks. With multiple regions linked via an interbank market, with local moral hazard, we show that implementing second-best allocations requires both ex-ante trade in inter-bank markets and contagion after realization of liquidity shocks.bank runs ; moral hazard ; risk-sharing ; liquidity ; random contracts

Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payo§s are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of Önes or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises

Ambiguous Contracting: Natural Language and Judicial Interpretation

We study the relationship between ambiguity (which comes into the picture since contracts have to be written in natural language), and contractual incompleteness. The contracting process is modelled as a signalling game between the parties and the judge, with the contract as the signal. The judge is assumed to be bound by the content of the contract (in as far as it can be ascertained unambiguously). Two kind of examples are presented: The first set of examples shows how ambiguity can lead to incompleteness. Here incompleteness is a way of hedging against adverse judgements on the part of an imperfectly informed judge. The remaining example illustrates a sort of converse intuition: It shows how incompleteness might lead the contracting parties to write ambiguous contracts in order to afford a relatively well-informed judge freedom to enforce the parties'willincomplete contracts, natural language

Transformations of the State Variable and Learning Dynamics

This article studies dynamics in a model where agents forecast a one dimensional variable via ordinary least squares regressions on the lagged values of the state variable. We study the stability properties of alternative transformations of the state variable that the agent can endogenously set forth. We study the consequences on the economy's stability of the typical transformations that an econometrician would attemp, such as differencing, detrending, or taking instantaneous concave transformations, such as logarithms. Surprinsingly, for the considered class of economies, we found that these transformations are destabilizing, whereas alternative transformations, which an econometrician would never consider, such as convex transformations, are stabilizing. Therefore, we ironically find that in our set-up. an active agent, who is concerned about learning the economy's dynamics and transforms the state variable, in an attempt to improve forecasting, is more likely to deviate from the steady state than a passive agent.Temporary equilibrium, Ordinary least squares learning, Globally stable formulations

Transformations of the State Variable and Learning Dynamics

This article studies dynamics in a model where agents forecast a one dimensional state variable via ordinary least squares regressions on the lagged values of the state variable. We study the stability properties of alternative transformations of the state variable that the agent can endogenously set forth. We study the consequences on the economy's stability of the typical transformations that an econometrician would attempt, such as differencing, detrending, or taking instantaneous concave transformations, such as logarithms. Surprisingly, for the considered class of economies, we found that these transformations are destabilizing, whereas alternative transformations, which an econometrician would never consider, such as convex transformations, are stabilizing. Therefore, we ironically find that in our set-up, an active agent, who is concerned about learning the economy's dynamics and, in an attempt to improve forecasting, transforms the state variable using the standard transformations, is more likely to deviate from the steady state than a passive agent.

Tops-Only Domains

In this paper we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternatives A and n voters and address the following question : what are the characteristics of domains D that induce the property that every strategy-proof social choice function f : Dn -> A satisfying unanimity, has the tops-only property? We first impose a minimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a, there exists an admissible ordering where a is maximal. We identify conditions on D that are sufficient for strategy-proofness and unanimity to imply tops onlyness in the general case of n voters and in the special case, n = 2. We provide an algorithm for constructing tops-only domains from connected graphs with elements of A as nodes. We provide several applications of our results. Finally, we relax the minimal richness assumption and partially extend our results.Voting, social choice, tops-only domain

Message Spaces for Perfect Correlated Equilibria

We show that a perfect correlated equilibrium distribution of an N-person game, as defined by Dhillon and Mertens (1996) can be achieved using a finite number of copies of the strategy space as the message space.